HydroClim Minnesota for Early January 2025

A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota's climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources. Distributed on the first Thursday of the month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Division of Ecological and Water Resources, St. Paul 
distributed: January 9, 2025

What happened in December 2024:

  • While December 2023 saw record warmth and wetness, December 2024 was much quieter and mild. Precipitation for December 2024 was near to a little above normal in the north and southeast, with the rest of the state slightly below normal. The preliminary average statewide precipitation total was .96 inches or .12 (a twelth) of an inch below normal. One of the wetter locations was Baudette in Lake of the Woods County with 1.33 inches or .53 inches above normal. One of the driest locations was Pipestone with only .12 (twelve tenths) of an inch of precipitation or .73 inches short of normal. Looking at the year as a whole, 2024 was the first time the statewide precipitation average finished above the 1991-2020 normal since 2019. 
    [see: December 2024 Preliminary Precipitation Total Map  | December 2024 Precipitation Departure Map  | December 2024 Climate Summary Table]
  • There were three weather events of note for December 2024
  • A combination of freezing rain, sleet, and snow spread across southern and eastern Minnesota on Saturday December 14th, coating roads and surfaces with any icy glaze and leading to dangerous travel conditions with dozens of spin-outs and accidents. A lighter glaze from freezing drizzle within a dense fog affected western and northern Minnesota as well on Saturday night and Sunday.
    [see: Slippery Roads, December 14, 2024]
  • A rather productive "Alberta Clipper" dropped more snow than is typical of systems originating in western Canada, leaving accumulations in excess of six inches in parts of central and southern Minnesota, and covering virtually all of the state with accumulating snow for the first time this winter.
    [see: "Super Clipper Jr.," December 19, 2024]
  • The third weather event of the month was some fairly heavy rainfall across center Minnesota on December 27. Many palaces in east central, south central and southeast Minnesota saw from one half to an inch of rain. One of the heaviest totals was 1.14 inches at Preston in Fillmore County. 
     
  • The last six out of seven Decembers have all had above normal temperatures except December 2022. December 2024 finished with a preliminary average temperature of 20.7 degrees, or 3.1 degrees above normal. While this was a warm December, it was 8.5 degrees F cooler than December 2023! The warmest temperature of December 2024 found so far was 58 degrees at Granite Falls in Chippewa County and the coldest reading found so far was -26 degrees F on December 12 at Celina in St. Louis County. 
    [see: December 2024 Climate Summary Table  |  2024 December Departure from Normal Temperature Map]

Where we stand now:

  • The snowfall of December 19 brought hope to winter enthusiasts across the state, but those hopes were dashed by the warm temperatures and the rain near the end of the month. Some snow cover was able to hang on in the far north and in the hills away from Lake Superior. On January 9, the snow depth ranking was in the 20th percentile or less across all but the northwest and parts of the northeast. For some locations in central Minnesota, having bare ground in January is fairly rare. 
    [see: Weekly Snow Depth and Ranking Maps  |  NWS Snow Depth Estimation Map  |  Midwest Regional Climate Center Snow Depth Map]
  • The drought situation in Minnesota changed very little during the month of December, with some slight improvement over eastern Minnesota. The U. S. Drought Monitor map released on January 9. 2025 depicts 12% of the state free of drought designation. About 38% of the state was Abnormally Dry, and 42% of the state in Moderate Drought conditions, 7% was in Severe Drought conditions. The U.S. Drought Monitor index is a blend of science and subjectivity where drought categories (Moderate, Severe, etc.) are based on several indicators. 
    [see: Drought Conditions Overview]
  • The U.S. Geological Survey reports that stream discharge values in Minnesota (where winter measurements are possible) are normal, to below historical medians. Most rivers and streams are impacted by ice. 
    [see: USGS Stream Flow Conditions]
  • Lakes froze over from late November to the second week of December. Lake ice deteriorated in late December, but conditions improved in early January. Mille Lacs was a little over three tenths of a foot below the median on January 8, 2025. Lake Minnetonka was at 928.60 feet, a fall of one tenth of a foot from last year at this time. White Bear Lake was at 922.39 feet on January 8, 2025 and was .22 feet lower than early January 2024. Lake of the Woods is just below the median band and Rainy Lake is in the middle of the median band, Lake Superior was forecasted to be 601.15 feet, on January 3, 2025 five inches lower than the same date in 2024 and four inches lower than the long-term average for January. 
    [see: Mille Lacs Lake Water Level  |  Lake Minnetonka Water Level  |  White Bear Lake Water Level  |  Lake of the Woods Control Board Basin Data  |  Corps of Engineers Great Lakes Water Levels]
  • In their final report for the season, On November 29, 2024 the Agricultural Statistics Service reported that topsoil moisture across Minnesota was 12 percent Very Short, 33 percent Short, 51 percent Adequate, and 4 percent Surplus. Harvest was finishing up by the end of November. Soil moisture levels at Lamberton on November 15 showed soil moisture recovery since mid-October, but still a little short of historical averages.. 
    [see: Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Progress and Condition  |  U. of M. Southwest Research & Outreach Center (Lamberton)  |  U. of M. Southern Research & Outreach Center (Waseca)]
  • The potential for wildfires is currently rated by DNR Forestry as Low across Minnesota. 
    [see: Fire Danger Rating Map]
  • Soil frost depths under sod are beginning to deepen with the colder temperatures. On January 9, frost depths were about a foot deep in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Rochester, about 5-10 inches in southwest Minnesota and up to two feet deep across the north. Historically, the deepest frost occurs in late February to early March. 
    [see: National Weather Service Frost Depth Data  |  University of Minnesota - St. Paul Campus Soil Temperatures Under Sod]
  • The lake ice season got to a good start in late November, then the warm December caused some poor lake ice conditions. The arrival of “real” winter temperatures in January helped to improve the ice. . 
    [see: DNR Conservation Officer Reports  |  2024 Ice-In Dates]  |  Median Lake Ice-In Dates]

Future prospects:

  • The precipitation outlook for January has equal chances for below, normal, and above normal precipitation for Minnesota. Precipitation normal for January range from near one-half inch of liquid equivalent in western Minnesota to about an inch and a half over the far northeast. The median snow cover at the end of January ranges from near five inches in southwest Minnesota, to over 15 inches on the ground in northeastern Minnesota (greater than 24 inches along the Lake Superior highlands). 
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook  | January Precipitation Normal Map]
  • The January temperature outlook has a tendency for below normal temperatures statewide, except the far northeastern tip where there are equal chances for above, below, and normal temperatures. Historically, January is Minnesota's coldest month. Normal January high temperatures range the low-teens in the north, to near 20 in the south. Normal January lows range from near minus 10 degrees in the far north, to the single digits above zero in southern Minnesota. 
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook  | Temperature Normals]
  • The 90-day temperature outlook for January-March has a tendency for below normal temperatures across the western half of the state. The eastern half has equal chances of below, above and normal temperatures. The 90-day precipitation outlook for December through February indicates equal chances for above, below and normal precipitation over the west, and a slight tilt for above normal precipitation over the east.  
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 90-day Outlook]
  • The National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products address both high flow and low flow probabilities. 
    [see: National Weather Service - North Central River Forecast Center]

Watercooler Talk in the Climate Office:

  • The results are in! Weather enthusiasts voted for the top five weather events of 2024. The #1 event was the exceptionally wet period from June 15-22. [see: Top Five Weather Events]

Upcoming dates of note:

  • January 16: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks
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Pete Boulay, DNR Climatologist

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