HydroClim Minnesota for Early November 2024

A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota's climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources. Distributed on the first Thursday of the month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Division of Ecological and Water Resources, St. Paul
distributed: November 13, 2024

What happened in October 2024:

  • October 2024 was much drier across the state than October 2023. There was little precipitation over the south half of the state for the first three weeks. The preliminary statewide average was .99 inches or 1.58 inches below normal. The driest areas for the month was from west central to east central Minnesota with Cloquet measuring .79 inches or 2.47 inches short of normal. No Minnesota National Weather Service station found so far finished above normal for precipitation, with Tower in northeast Minnesota coming the closest with 2.43 inches, and .32 inches below normal near Tower.
    [see: October 2024 Precipitation Total Map  | October 2024 Precipitation Departure Map  | October 2024 Climate Summary Table  |  October 2024 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map]
  • There was only one precipitation event of note for October, 2024 and that came on Halloween with snow and a soaker. People grumbled a bit about the early taste of winter, but the moisture was most welcome. 
    [see: Soaking Rain and Yet Another Halloween Snowfall]
  • October 2024 was another month in a row of above normal temperatures and was also warmer than October 2023. The preliminary statewide average temperature was 52.2 degrees or about 6.4 degrees above normal. This was the fourth October in a row to finish above normal. The last time the statewide average temperature for October was below normal was October 2020. The highest temperature for October 2024 found so far was 87 degrees at both Albert Lea and Winnebago. 
    [see: October 2024 Climate Summary Table  |  2024 October Departure from Normal Temperature Map]

Where we stand now:

  • Seasonal precipitation totals (April 1 through November 12) showed that despite the dry late summer and autumn, the bulk of the state ranked above the historical median, except parts of Northern Minnesota, which was close to normal or slightly below normal.
    [see: Seasonal Precipitation Ranking Maps]
  • The U. S. Drought Monitor map released on November 7, depicts that less than 1% of the state is free of any drought designation. 16% of the state in the Abnormally Dry category, 38% is in the Moderate Drought category, and 46% is in the Severe Drought category. This is the greatest drought coverage since September 2023, but recent rains over the last two weeks have put a pause on drought expansion The U.S. Drought Monitor index is a blend of science and subjectivity where drought categories (Moderate, Severe, etc.) are based on several indicators. 
    [see: Drought Conditions Overview]
  • The U.S. Geological Survey reports that stream discharge values on November 13 have ranged from near normal in the south, with the Minnesota River basin in the Normal range. Much of central and northern Minnesota has below to much below normal stream flows, except in the Red River Valley were stream flows were near normal. The Mississippi River at St. Cloud was in the 6th percentile. ;
    [see: USGS Stream Flow Conditions]
  • Water levels on most Minnesota lakes vary depending on lake and location in the state. Mille Lacs on November 13 was at 10.39 feet, about .42 feet below the median for this time of year. On November 13, Minnetonka was at 928.54 feet, close to the median and also close to the level last year at this time. White Bear Lake was at 922.48 feet on November 13, a rise of .29 tenths of a foot from a year ago at this time. Rainy Lake is in the median band and Lake of the Woods is just below the median band. Lake Superior was forecast to be at 601.41 feet on November 8, seven inches lower than this time yeast year and seven inches lower than the long term monthly average for early November. The projected net change by December 10, 2024 is a fall of two inches. 
    [see: Mille Lacs Lake Water Level  |  Lake Minnetonka Water Level  |  White Bear Lake Water Level  |  Lake of the Woods Control Board Basin Data  |  Corps of Engineers Great Lakes Water Levels]
  • The Agricultural Statistics Service on November 13 reports that topsoil moisture across Minnesota is 20 percent Very Short, 42 percent Short, 38 percent Adequate, and 0 percent Surplus. Soil moisture levels at Lamberton on November 1 showed a bit of a rebound in soil moisture and as of November 1 there was a deficit of .65 inches, compacted to the historic median. 
    [see: Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Progress and Condition  |  U. of M. Southwest Research and Outreach Center (Lamberton)  |  U. of M. Southern Research and Outreach Center (Waseca)]
  • The potential for wildfires on November 13, 2024 is currently rated by DNR Forestry as Low across southern and eastern Minnesota and Moderate over west central and northwest parts of the state. Historically, 80 percent of all wildfires in Minnesota occur during April and May.
    [see: Fire Danger Rating Map]

Future prospects:

  • The November precipitation outlook leans towards above normal precipitation over all but the northwest where there are equal chances of below, above and normal precipitation. November precipitation normals range from about three-quarters of an inch in northwest Minnesota to about two-and-a-half inches in Cook County. Southern and central Minnesota range by about one-and-a-quarter of an inch in the southwest to about two-inches and a quarter in south central Minnesota.
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook  |  November Precipitation Normal Map]
  • The November temperature outlook has a fairly strong tendency for above normal temperatures statewide. Normal November high temperatures are in the 40s to start the month, dropping to the 30s by month's end. Normal lows are in the 30s to upper 20s early in the month, falling to the teens by late November. 
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook  | November Temperature Normal Map]
  • The 90-day temperature outlook for November through January is leaning towards equal chances for below, normal and above normal temperatures, with equal chances of above, normal and below normal precipitation.
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 90-day Outlook]
  • The National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products address both high flow and low flow probabilities. 
    [see: National Weather Service - North Central River Forecast Center]

From the author:

  • According to the October El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook, there is a 70% chance of La Niña from December-February 20245 and is expected to weaken through February-April 2025. The Outlook for December 2024-February 2025 has a slight tilt for above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures across most of Minnesota. Will this mean more snow? We will have to wait and see!
    [see: Climate Prediction Center December-January Outlook]

Upcoming dates of note:

  • November 21: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks
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Pete Boulay, DNR Climatologist

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