HydroClim Minnesota for Early December 2024

A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota's climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources.

State Climatology Office - DNR Division of Ecological and Water Resources, St. Paul 
distributed: December 9, 2024

What happened in November 2024:

  • In a welcome break from the drought, Minnesota had an above normal precipitation month for November with timely precipitation in mid-month before the ground froze. One to two inches of precipitation fell over two days over central and southern Minnesota and along the north shore. The highest precipitation found so far for the month was at Litchfield in central Minnesota with 4.10 inches or 2.75 inches above normal. One of the driest locations was Gunflint Lake in Northeast Minnesota with 1.46 inches or .11 inches below normal. The statewide preliminary precipitation total was 2.60 inches or 1.17 inches above normal.
    [see: November 2024 Preliminary Precipitation Total Map  | November 2024 Precipitation Departure Map  | November 2024 Climate Summary Table  |  November 2024 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map]
  • Had it not been for a Thanksgiving weekend arctic blast, November 2024 would have finished perhaps in the top five warmest Novembers back to 1895. Instead, it will probably wind up somewhere in the top fifteen warmest. The preliminary average statewide temperature is 34.8 degrees F, 3.9 degrees above normal. Some of the highest temperatures found so far include 63 degrees at various locations in southern Minnesota. The coldest temperature found so far was -13 degrees F at Warren in Marshall County in Northwest Minnesota. [see: November 2024 Climate Summary Table  |  2024 November Departure from Normal Temperature Map]

Where we stand now:

  • As of December 9, 2024 the snowpack is confined north of a line from Fargo to Duluth, with the deepest snow over the far north from International Falls to Cook County with 6-12 inches on the ground. Last year at this time there was just a trace of snow on the ground at International Falls. 
    [see:NWS Snow Depth Estimation Map | Midwest Regional Climate Center Snow Depth Map| MNDNR Snow Depth Maps]
  • The U. S. Drought Monitor map released on December 5, depicts 89% of Minnesota with some level of drought designation. About 32% of the state was Abnormally Dry, 48% of the state was in Moderate Drought conditions and Severe Drought is over 9% of the state. The U.S. Drought Monitor index is a blend of science and subjectivity where drought categories (Moderate, Severe, etc.) are based on several indicators. 
    [see: Drought Conditions Overview]
  • Ice is affecting many streams across Minnesota. In general, for the areas that still have some open water, such as on the Minnesota River and the Mississippi River, the U.S. Geological Survey reports that stream discharge values are near normal.
    [see: USGS Stream Flow Conditions]
  • Water levels on most Minnesota lakes vary depending on lake and location in the state. Many lakes froze over with the cold snap at the end of November and early December. The USGS water level gauge at Mille Lacs on December 9 had a level of 10.49 feet; about .05 feet higher than last year, and .27 of a foot below the median. The level on Lake Minnetonka on December 9 was 928.53 feet, .19 tenths of a foot higher than a year ago at this time and 1.19 feet higher than two years ago at this time. White Bear Lake was at 922.42 on December 9, .38 of a foot higher than last year at this time. The Lake level on Rainy Lake is in the normal band and Lake of the Woods is in the low end of the median range. Lake Superior had a forecast level of 601.25 feet on December 8, six inches lower than the long term median and five inches lower than early December 2023.
    [see: Mille Lacs Lake Water Level  |  Lake Minnetonka Water Level  |  White Bear Lake Water Level  |  Lake of the Woods Control Board Basin Data  |  Corps of Engineers Great Lakes Water Levels]
  • In their final report for the season, the Agricultural Statistics Service on November 29 reported that topsoil moisture across Minnesota is 12 percent Very Short, 33 percent Short, 51 percent Adequate, and 4 percent Surplus. This is much drier than this time last year when topsoil moisture was 13 percent Short to Very Short. Harvest was finishing up by the end of November. Soil moisture levels at Lamberton on November 15 showed soil moisture recovery since mid-October, but still a little short of historical averages. 
    [see: Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Progress and Condition  |  U. of M. Southwest Research and Outreach Center (Lamberton)  |  U. of M. Southern Research and Outreach Center (Waseca)]
  • Frost depths are fairly shallow across the state, generally nine inches or less with a bit of thawing on the surface by December 9. One of the deepest frost depths in the state found so far is 11 inches at Watson in Chippewa County. Most of the frozen soils began at the end of November. 
    [see: National Weather Service Frost Depth Data | National Weather Service Soil Temperature Data
  • The potential for wildfires on December 9, 2024 is currently rated by DNR Forestry as Low across the entire state. The potential for wildfires is elevated due to the non-existent snow cover. Historically, 80 percent of all wildfires in Minnesota occur during April and May. 
    [see: Fire Danger Rating Map]

Future prospects:

  • The December precipitation outlook that was released on November 30 has equal chances for above, normal and above normal precipitation across Minnesota. 
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook  |  December Precipitation Normal Map]
  • According to the Climate Prediction Center, Minnesota and the upper Midwest will be caught in the middle of above normal temperatures to the west and below normal temperatures to the east in December with equal chances of below, normal and above normal temperatures in Minnesota. Normal December high temperatures are in the upper 20's to low 30's to start the month, dropping to the low to mid 20's by month's end. Normal lows are in the teens early in the month, falling to single digits by late December. 
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook  | Temperature Normal Maps]
  • The 90-day temperature outlook for December through February has a tendency for below normal temperatures across the western half of the state. The 90-day precipitation outlook for December through February indicates a slight tendency for above normal precipitation across all but the far west and the southwest parts of the state where there will be equal chances for above, below and normal precipitation.
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 90-day Outlook]
  • The National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products address both high flow and low flow probabilities. 
    [see: National Weather Service - North Central River Forecast Center]

From the author:

  • According to the December 9 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook, the most recent Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is at -.2 degrees C, below the La Niña threshold of -.5 degrees C. There is a 70% chance of La Niña developing this winter but weakening by early spring. The Outlook for January-March 2025, has a slight tilt for above normal precipitation over northeast Minnesota and below normal temperatures across most of Minnesota, except the northeast and southeast. 
    [see: Climate Prediction Center January-March 2025 Outlook]

Upcoming dates of note:

  • December 19: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks
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Pete Boulay, DNR Climatologist

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