Forecast Canadian fire danger indexes

Forecast for 12:00 2017-12-19

**Local agency personnel should contact MIFC Fire Intelligence if errors or omissions are observed.**

Station °F RH P24I Wind FFMC DMC DC ISI BUI FWI
Agassiz 22 75 0.19 17 38.2 8.1 309.5 0.1 15.3 0.1
Badoura 27 67 0.0 15 78.1 10.5 112.4 3.2 17.0 4.7
Baudette 22 72 0.14 16 47.2 3.4 143.2 0.4 6.3 0.2
Bemidji 24 74 0.09 16 44.8 5.5 278.2 0.3 10.4 0.2
Bigstone 34 57 0.0 14 81.5 30.5 114.1 4.3 36.6 9.9
Brainerd 29 63 0.0 18 79.7 9.5 92.4 4.6 15.1 6.3
Camp Ripley/Little Falls 29 68 0.0 15 79.6 10.0 46.1 3.7 13.0 4.6
Carlos Avery 31 72 0.0 11 78.4 4.6 147.4 2.5 8.6 2.1
Cass Lake 25 67 0.04 18 72.8 10.4 200.2 2.9 18.4 4.5
Cutfoot 24 67 0.07 17 65.3 0.0 189.3 2.1 0.0 0.4
Detroit Lakes 26 76 0.02 17 67.8 8.6 134.9 2.3 14.8 3.0
Effie 25 65 0.1 15 59.2 1.4 208.2 1.3 2.7 0.4
Ely 23 71 0.15 16 50.0 0.8 36.6 0.6 1.5 0.2
Fernberg 23 68 0.16 16 49.3 0.0 57.6 0.6 0.0 0.1
Grand Portage 27 63 0.09 16 61.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.3
Hibbing 25 65 0.1 18 60.0 0.6 47.0 1.8 1.1 0.5
Hill City 26 66 0.03 17 77.4 1.9 48.0 3.7 3.5 2.1
Isabella 25 64 0.12 18 56.3 0.0 5.8 1.4 0.0 0.3
Kelliher 24 74 0.11 15 46.4 5.0 308.2 0.3 9.7 0.2
Kittson 22 75 0.2 17 43.6 20.3 244.6 0.3 33.6 0.3
Station °F RH P24I Wind FFMC DMC DC ISI BUI FWI
Litchfield 32 72 0.0 15 80.1 23.9 76.7 3.8 26.9 7.3
Littlefork 22 70 0.16 15 46.0 0.0 227.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
Meander USFS 21 73 0.19 15 44.6 0.0 66.4 0.3 0.0 0.1
MN Valley 33 71 0.0 11 80.0 16.1 73.4 2.9 20.8 4.8
Moose Lake 29 64 0.0 19 80.7 3.6 40.9 5.7 5.9 4.7
Mora 29 72 0.0 14 78.3 6.0 15.1 3.1 6.0 2.3
New Ulm Municipal Airport 35 64 0.0 13 81.2 19.9 100.6 3.7 26.6 7.1
Orr 22 70 0.16 17 49.1 0.4 92.2 0.6 0.7 0.1
Redstn 36 54 0.0 13 82.0 37.6 137.6 3.9 44.7 10.2
Rice Lake 29 62 0.0 18 80.0 3.7 127.1 4.9 6.9 4.4
Rochester 35 64 0.0 15 78.9 4.3 99.2 3.4 7.8 3.1
Roseau 22 71 0.14 16 51.1 9.9 196.1 0.7 17.6 0.6
Saginaw 27 63 0.05 19 72.2 1.2 48.6 3.1 2.3 1.0
Seagull Lake 24 68 0.14 18 52.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.2
Sherburne 31 70 0.0 14 79.0 9.5 18.3 3.2 9.4 3.2
Skibo 25 66 0.14 15 52.2 0.3 45.2 0.7 0.7 0.2
Stanton Airfield 33 70 0.0 12 80.0 19.0 265.6 3.1 32.2 6.9
St. Croix 31 66 0.0 16 80.3 5.1 31.2 4.4 7.3 4.0
Voyageurs/Kabnam 22 70 0.15 16 50.1 0.0 66.6 0.6 0.0 0.1

Interpretation

The following chart is a statewide generalized fire danger rating chart for the Canadian Fire Weather Index. It is based on a five class danger rating system, i.e., low, moderate, high, very high , and extreme. The distribution is based on weather records from 1985 - 1998. Low days occurred 45% to 50% of the time, moderate - 30 %, high days - 12% to 15%, very high days occurred 7%-8% of the time, and extreme days were 2%-3%. This is not meant to be used as a staffing guide . Each area needs to look at its own weather data coupled with its fire occurrence data. For instance, if you have a drought code of 380, it does not mean you are in extreme fire danger. It means that the drought code only gets that high on 2% of the days between April 1 and November 1.

Index Low Moderate High Very High Extreme

FFMC

0.0 - 80.9

81.0 - 87.9

88.0 - 90.4

90.5 - 92.4

92.5+

DMC

0.0 - 12.9

13.0 - 27.9

28.0 - 41.9

42.0 - 62.9

63.0+

DC

0.0 - 79.9

80.0 - 209.9

210.0 - 273.9

274.0 - 359.9

360.0+

ISI

0.0 - 3.9

4.0 - 7.9

8.0 - 10.9

11.0 - 18.9

19.0+

BUI

0.0 - 18.9

19.0 - 33.9

34.0 - 53.9

54.0 - 76.9

77.0+

FWI

0.0 - 4.9

5.0 - 13.9

14.0 - 20.9

21.0 - 32.9

33.0+

Definitions

Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC)

This provides a relative indicator of the moisture in the fine fuels. Like the 1 hour fuel moisture, it reacts directly with the air temperature and relative humidity.

Duff Moisture Code (DMC)

This is an index of the moisture of the loosely compact organic layers at a depth of 2-4 inches.

Drought Code (DC)

This measures long term dryness in the fuels. It is a longer term index than the NFDRS 1000 fuel moisture. It doesn't reflect the probability of fire occurrence by itself, but can be useful in predicting the level of mop up needed and the consumption of large fuels. It should be looked at in relation to peat fire starts.

Initial Spread Index (ISI)

This is based on the FFMC and the wind speed. It provides a relative numerical rating of the expected rate of spread. This is similar to the NFDRS Spread Component.

Buildup Index (BUI)

This index is based on the DC and the DMC. It provides a relative indication of the amount of fuel available for combustion. This is somewhat similar to the NFDRS Energy Release Component. It doesn't predict what a given day might be like, but does relate well to the dryness of the fuels.

Fire Weather Index (FWI)

This combines the BUI and the ISI to give a relative numerical rating of fire intensity. It can be compared to the NFDRS Burning Index.